OTTAWA REAL ESTATE
Ottawa Real Estate Market Update — October 2026
The Ottawa real estate market update for October 2026 shows a market catching its breath. A total of 1,048 homes sold, up 3.8% from September but down 10.7% from October 2025, while new listings fell 18.6% in a single month to 2,382. Fewer listings and slightly more sales pulled months of inventory down from 4.8 to 4.4 and lifted the sales-to-new-listings ratio from 34.5% to 44.0%.
In short: October gave Ottawa sellers some breathing room, but most of it came from the usual fall drop in new listings, not a surge in buyer demand. Buyers still have more choice than they did a year ago, like-for-like prices are about 1.3% lower than last October, and a new factor arrived late in the month: the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on October 28, its first increase in three years.
October 2026 Ottawa Real Estate Market at a Glance
| Metric | October 2026 | vs. October 2025 | vs. September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes sold | 1,048 | −10.7% | +3.8% |
| Average sale price | $678,512 | −4.5% | −1.0% |
| Median sale price | $622,000 | −3.9% | −0.5% |
| MLS® HPI composite benchmark | $616,900 | −1.3% | −1.1% |
| New listings | 2,382 | −1.2% | −18.6% |
| Active listings | 4,582 | +6.4% | −4.8% |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 44.0% | down from 48.7% | up from 34.5% |
| Months of inventory | 4.4 | up from 3.7 | down from 4.8 |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 97.5% | down from 97.9% | unchanged |
| Median days on market | 25.5 | 25 last October | 27 in September |
All figures as reported by the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) in its October 2026 release, published November 5, 2026.
Through the first ten months of 2026, 11,335 homes have sold in Ottawa, down 7.3% from the same period in 2025, on roughly $7.9 billion in dollar volume (down 8.0%). Over the same stretch, 25,352 new listings came to market, up 3.4%. More homes listed and fewer homes sold is the simplest explanation for why Ottawa buyers have held more leverage all year.
Price Trends by Property Type
| Property type | Oct 2026 sales | Sales vs. Oct 2025 | Sales vs. Sept 2026 | HPI benchmark price | Benchmark vs. Oct 2025 | Benchmark vs. Sept 2026 | Months of inventory (Sept) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | 558 | −12.5% | +4.3% | $699,200 | −0.8% | −0.8% | 4.0 (4.4) |
| Townhouse | 350 | −3.0% | +6.4% | $539,800 | −4.3% | −1.2% | 3.6 (4.0) |
| Apartment/condo | 115 | −23.3% | −5.0% | $377,500 | −5.3% | −0.9% | 7.4 (7.3) |
Month-over-month sales changes and the single-family and townhouse benchmark changes from September are calculated from OREB’s September and October 2026 releases. All other figures are as reported by OREB.
Each property type told a different story in October.
Single-family homes held their value best. The detached benchmark is down just 0.8% from a year ago, and inventory tightened to 4.0 months, which is balanced territory. Sales were the weak spot: down 12.5% from last October, the steepest drop of the two freehold types. After September’s unusual 3.0% one-month fall in the detached benchmark, October’s smaller decline of about 0.8% is a welcome sign that the slide is slowing rather than accelerating. Single-family new listings fell 22.3% from September to 1,202, though that was still the second-highest October count since 2016.
Townhomes were the tightest segment in the city at 3.6 months of inventory, and sales were down only 3.0% from last year. But the townhouse benchmark is now 4.3% below October 2025, wider than the 2.2% gap in September. Townhouses are selling, but buyers are paying less for them. That fits what I see on the ground: the townhouse is Ottawa’s affordability product, and those buyers are the most payment-sensitive in the market. Townhouse new listings reached 740, the highest October total since at least 2016.
Condo apartments remain the clearest pressure point, as they have been all of 2026. Inventory edged up to 7.4 months, sales fell 23.3% to 115, and the apartment benchmark is down 5.3% year over year. Notably, apartment new listings (367) were close to the ten-year October average of 362. Fresh condo supply is roughly normal; my read is that the problem is demand, with unsold units accumulating month after month. For more detail, see the Ottawa condo market report.
Why the Average Price Fell 4.5% but the Benchmark Fell Only 1.3%
October’s headline number looks worse than the market really is. The average sale price is down 4.5% from last year. The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark, which tracks a typical home with consistent features, is down only 1.3%. Both are accurate. They measure different things, and the gap between them is the single most useful thing to understand about this month.
The average price moves with the mix of homes that sell. When cheaper homes make up a bigger share of sales, the average drops even if no individual home lost value. That is what happened in October. Detached sales fell 12.5% from last year, while townhouse sales slipped only 3.0%. By my calculation from OREB’s figures, townhouses made up about 33% of October sales (350 of 1,048), up from roughly 31% a year earlier, while the detached share dipped by about a point. More townhouses in the mix, fewer detached homes: the average falls.
Condo sales falling by nearly a quarter actually worked the other way, nudging the average up, but not enough to offset the shift away from detached homes. OREB doesn’t publish sales by price band in its monthly release, so it isn’t possible to say how much of the drop also came from fewer high-end detached sales.
The benchmark strips the mix out. That makes it the better gauge of what a typical home is worth today compared with a year ago. For the longer-term picture, see Ottawa home prices.
Here’s what that means in dollars. A home that would have sold for $700,000 last October would sell for roughly $691,000 today on the benchmark measure. Applying the 4.5% average decline instead would suggest about $668,500. That $22,000 difference is exactly the kind of gap that leads sellers to underprice out of fear, or buyers to lowball a well-priced home and lose it.
Two more details sharpen the picture:
- The monthly decline is real. From September to October, the average fell 1.0% and the benchmark fell 1.1%. When the two move together, the change isn’t a mix effect. Values did soften a little in October.
- But the pace is slowing. After adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, OREB says the benchmark fell about 0.5% in October, compared with 1.5% in September. That’s the most encouraging number in this release for anyone selling this winter.
September and October distorted the averages in opposite directions. In September, a heavy detached mix held the average up while the benchmark fell 2.2%. In October, a lighter detached mix pulled the average down further than the benchmark. That’s why I price homes off current comparable sales and the benchmark trend, not the headline average. A proper home valuation uses the sales that actually match your property.
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Sales Activity and Inventory: Sellers Pulled Back
October’s improvement came mostly from the supply side. Buyers bought slightly more homes than in September, but the bigger change was that far fewer sellers listed.
- Sales rose 3.8% from September. In the previous ten years, sales rose from September to October five times and fell five times, so this year’s gain sits inside the normal range. Even so, 1,048 sales was the third-lowest October total since 2016.
- New listings dropped 18.6% from September. New listings fall every October; the median September-to-October drop over the past decade was 14.6%. This year’s pullback was larger than usual.
- Supply is still high by historical standards. October’s 2,382 new listings were the third-highest October count since 2016 and 26.1% above the previous ten-year October average of 1,889.
- Active listings eased to 4,582, down 4.8% from September but up 6.4% from last year. Only October 2016, at 5,075, had more homes on the market at this time of year.
- The sales-to-new-listings ratio recovered to 44.0% from 34.5% in September. A ratio between 40% and 60% is generally read as a balanced market, so October moved Ottawa from buyer’s-market territory back to the low end of balanced.
- Months of inventory fell to 4.4 from 4.8. A year ago it was 3.7, and the ratio was 48.7%, so conditions are still softer than last fall.
OREB president Tami Eades described October as welcome relief for sellers, while noting that buyers continue to have considerable choice. I’d put it this way: the market stopped getting softer in October, but it didn’t get firmer in any lasting sense. Most of the improvement is the calendar at work.
Where Ottawa’s Market Is Firmest and Softest
Ottawa’s three suburban submarkets accounted for 753 sales, or 71.9% of the city total, though each one sold fewer homes than last October. OREB’s seven submarkets ranked like this on months of inventory:
| OREB submarket | October 2026 months of inventory | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Suburb East | 3.5 | Firmest in the city; 51.0% sales-to-new-listings ratio |
| Ottawa Suburb West | 3.7 | Unchanged from September |
| Ottawa Suburb South | 4.1 | Down from 4.4 in September |
| Ottawa Rural South | 4.1 | Only 57 sales; read monthly swings cautiously |
| Ottawa Rural West | 4.4 | Only 66 sales; down from 5.8 in September |
| Ottawa Centre | 6.6 | Condo-heavy; down slightly from 6.8 |
| Ottawa Rural East | 7.3 | Softest in the city and rose from September |
The suburbs remain firmer than the core and the rural east. With rural submarkets recording fewer than 100 sales a month, a handful of transactions can swing their numbers sharply, so treat those figures as directional. OREB’s submarkets are broad groupings, not individual neighbourhoods. Your street and property type can behave quite differently from the submarket average, which is why I always look at recent sales in Ottawa and competing listings before pricing a home or writing an offer.
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Looking Ahead: The Rate Hike, the Federal Budget and Ottawa Jobs
October’s numbers were collected before most of the month’s biggest news could show up in sales. Four factors will shape what Ottawa’s winter market looks like.
The Bank of Canada Raised Rates for the First Time in Three Years
On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%, citing persistent inflation pressures. It was the first increase in three years, and it lands on a market where affordability was already the main brake on demand.
- Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs are priced off lenders’ prime rates, which typically move with the policy rate. Anyone carrying variable debt, or planning a bridge loan or HELOC to buy before selling, should expect higher carrying costs.
- Fixed rates follow bond yields more than the policy rate, so they can move on their own schedule. Ask your lender or broker what has happened to fixed rates since the announcement rather than assuming.
- Qualifying is harder at higher rates. Every rate increase shrinks the maximum purchase price under the mortgage stress test. If your pre-approval is more than a few weeks old, have it re-run.
Check the Bank of Canada’s current policy rate and next announcement date before timing a move around rates. For more on how this flows through to what you can afford, see how interest rates affect buying power.
The Federal Budget and Public-Service Employment
Employment is the issue Ottawa watches more closely than any other Canadian city. OREB cites an analysis by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, reported by the Ottawa Citizen, showing roughly 15,000 fewer people employed locally since March 2025. That is a larger loss than in any other large Ontario municipality over the same period, with federal public-service reductions an important contributor. For what that can mean for your own home, see how public-service job cuts affect Ottawa homeowners.
The picture depends on the comparison period, though. September’s seasonally adjusted employment estimate for the Ontario side of the Ottawa–Gatineau census metropolitan area was still above its year-earlier level, even after a decline from August. Past rounds of federal workforce cuts were accompanied by weaker Ottawa home sales and higher inventory, but OREB is careful to say that history doesn’t tell us how much of today’s softness is driven by jobs. I agree with that caution.
The federal budget was scheduled for November 5, the same day OREB released these figures. Two things in it matter most for Ottawa housing:
- Staffing details. Clearer numbers on public-service reductions will help households judge their own job security, and job security drives whether people feel safe buying.
- Housing measures. The Canadian Real Estate Association asked for changes to housing finance and mortgage insurance in its pre-budget submission, including support for owning individual units in small multiplexes. Whether any of that is adopted is worth watching.
The national economy adds to the uncertainty. Statistics Canada reported essentially unchanged real GDP in August and an advance estimate of a 0.1% decline in September.
New Construction Is Drawing Buyers
The Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association reported 521 new-home sales in September, up 81.5% from a year earlier, with sales from January to September up 53.8%. Expanded, limited-time HST relief on qualifying new homes is likely part of the reason. OREB stops short of saying buyers are shifting from resale to new construction, but strong new-home sales next to soft resale absorption is a contrast worth watching. If you’re weighing a new build, read the GST/HST new home rebate guide and confirm current eligibility before you sign; the rules have changed more than once.
What November Usually Brings
In each of the past ten years, Ottawa’s new listings have declined in both October and November. If that pattern holds, supply should keep tightening into December while buyer traffic also slows for the holidays. The real test comes in early 2027: if listings stay elevated when the spring market starts and the rate increase dampens demand, the pressure on prices returns. For the longer view, see the Ottawa housing market forecast.
What the October 2026 Market Means for Buyers
Buyers still hold more leverage than they did a year ago, but October showed the window can narrow quickly once listings dry up. Here’s how I’d approach a purchase this winter.
- Get rate certainty before you shop. The October 28 increase changed the math for many buyers. Have your pre-approval re-run at today’s rates, ask how long your lender will hold the rate, and decide between fixed and variable with the new policy rate in mind. A strong offer starts with knowing your real ceiling.
- Negotiate, but price your offer to the benchmark. Homes sold for an average of 97.5% of list price in October. On a $750,000 listing, that average gap is about $18,750. But the 4.5% drop in the average price overstates how much a typical home has fallen. Offers built on that headline will lose well-priced homes to buyers who did their homework.
- Watch days on market. The median home sold in 25.5 days. A listing that has sat well past a month, especially one that’s already had a price reduction, is usually where the real negotiating room is.
- Expect competition for good townhomes. At 3.6 months of inventory, freehold townhouses were the tightest segment in Ottawa. Well-priced ones in good condition still move quickly, so be ready to act.
- Suburban family homes are the firmer side of the market. If you’re shopping for a detached home in suburban communities such as Kanata, Stittsville or Barrhaven, expect less room to negotiate than the citywide figures suggest. Ottawa’s suburban submarkets ran at 3.5 to 4.1 months of inventory in October, compared with 6.6 in Ottawa Centre. For neighbourhood-level detail, see the Kanata market update for October 2026 and the Stittsville market update for October 2026.
- Condo buyers have the most leverage in the city. With 7.4 months of inventory and the apartment benchmark down 5.3% year over year, you can be patient and selective. Check the building’s reserve fund study and status certificate carefully before you firm up.
- Inspect with winter in mind. Snow hides roofs, grading and drainage. Ask for furnace and air-conditioning service records, look for signs of ice damming, and get a proper read on the electrical panel and any original wiring. With my background in construction and the electrical trades, this is the part of a showing I pay closest attention to. Our guide to home inspections in Ottawa covers what to book and when.
- Compare resale and new construction honestly. HST relief can make a new build look better on paper than it did a year ago. Weigh that against builder contract terms, closing timelines and the certainty of a resale home you can inspect today. The new construction homes in Ottawa guide walks through the process.
- Don’t dismiss a winter purchase. Fewer buyers shop in December and January, and the sellers who list then usually need to move. That combination can work in your favour. See the best time to buy a home in Ottawa for the seasonal trade-offs.
What the October 2026 Market Means for Sellers
October was the best month for Ottawa sellers since the summer, but the relief was modest. A 44.0% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.4 months of inventory are still softer than last October’s 48.7% and 3.7 months. Success this winter comes down to pricing and preparation.
- Price to the benchmark, not the headline. If you read that Ottawa prices fell 4.5%, don’t assume your home lost that much. Like-for-like values are down about 1.3% from last year. At the same time, don’t price off spring comparables either: the benchmark fell another 1.1% from September. A current home valuation built on recent sales of homes like yours is the only reliable starting point. Here’s why overpricing costs you in a market like this one.
- Less competition is coming. If new listings fall again in November, as they have every year for a decade, sellers who list now face fewer competing homes than at any point since spring. The trade-off is fewer buyers. The buyers who do shop in late fall and winter tend to be serious. Our guide to the best time to sell in Ottawa lays out both sides, and how interest rates affect selling explains what the October rate increase means for your sale.
- Townhouse sellers: expect a sale, at a realistic price. Your segment is the tightest in the city, but the townhouse benchmark is down 4.3% from last year. Buyers are moving quickly on well-priced homes and walking past ones that aren’t.
- Condo sellers need the sharpest pricing. At 7.4 months of inventory, your real competition is the other units listed in your building and area right now. Price against them, not against last year’s sale down the hall. The Ottawa condo market report has more context.
- Prepare for a winter listing. Clear walkways and driveways for every showing, keep the home warm and well lit, and fix the small issues buyers notice on a cold, dark visit. A pre-listing home inspection can surface problems before a buyer’s inspector does, which protects your price. Staging and how your home is marketed carry more weight when buyers have choice.
- Know your net, not just your price. Commission, legal fees, mortgage penalties and moving costs all come off the top. Run the numbers with our cost of selling a home in Ottawa guide. A lower listing commission, like the 1% listing commission I offer, can offset a softer sale price.
Moving Up? The Gap Between Rungs Got Wider
This is the part of the October data that matters most to the move-up homeowners I work with. When every property type falls at the same rate, moving up costs about the same as it did last year. In 2026, they haven’t fallen at the same rate.
- Townhouse to detached: the gap between the townhouse and single-family benchmarks is about $159,400 today. By my calculation from OREB’s year-over-year changes, it was roughly $141,000 a year ago, so the step up is about $18,000 to $19,000 wider.
- Condo to detached: the gap between the apartment and single-family benchmarks is about $321,700, roughly $15,000 wider than a year ago on the same calculation.
Add a higher policy rate to the mix and carrying two properties, even briefly, costs more than it did in September. That strengthens the case for selling first or making a purchase conditional on your sale, rather than buying first and relying on a bridge loan or HELOC. It isn’t the right answer for every family, but the sequencing decision deserves a plan before you list. Start with should I sell my house first or buy first, then run your own figures through the move-up calculator.
How to Read These Numbers
All market figures on this page come from the Ottawa Real Estate Board’s October 2026 market release, published November 5, 2026. OREB posts each monthly release in its newsroom. Its figures cover residential sales through the MLS® System across the board’s region. For longer-term trend charts, CREA publishes Ottawa board statistics, and explains how the MLS® Home Price Index is calculated. Employment, GDP and new-home figures are as cited by OREB from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Statistics Canada and the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association. Where this page shows a calculation, such as a month-over-month change OREB doesn’t report directly or the gap between benchmark prices, it is worked out from OREB’s published figures and labelled as such.
Citywide numbers are a starting point. Your street, property type and price range can behave quite differently. For every monthly report, see the full Ottawa real estate market update archive.
Talk to Jason About What October Means for Your Move
Jason Polonski is an Ottawa REALTOR® with Right at Home Realty and more than 15 years of experience helping buyers and sellers across Kanata, Stittsville, Barrhaven, Nepean, Manotick and the rest of the city. Before real estate, he worked in construction and the electrical trades, so when he reads a market like this one, he’s also reading the homes in it: which ones will hold their value through a soft patch, and which will lose ground at inspection. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Concordia University with a double major in Marketing and Finance, which shapes how he prices listings, structures offers and plans the sequence of a move-up purchase when rates and values are both shifting. Whether you’re deciding to list before the holidays, wait for spring, or buy while buyers still have choice, call or text Jason at (613) 601-9333 or request a free home evaluation.
Previous update: September 2026 Ottawa market update.
October 2026 Ottawa Market Update: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
The average residential sale price in Ottawa was $678,512 in October 2026, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board. That was down 4.5% from October 2025 and 1.0% from September 2026. The median sale price was $622,000, down 3.9% year over year.
Yes, modestly. Ottawa’s MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was $616,900 in October 2026, down 1.3% from a year earlier and 1.1% from September. After seasonal adjustment the benchmark fell about 0.5%, compared with 1.5% in September, which suggests the pace of price declines in Ottawa slowed in October.
A total of 1,048 residential properties sold through the MLS® System in Ottawa in October 2026, down 10.7% from October 2025 and up 3.8% from September. That included 558 single-family homes, 350 townhouses and 115 apartments. Through the first ten months of 2026, 11,335 homes sold in Ottawa, down 7.3% from 2025.
Ottawa sat at the buyer-friendly end of a balanced market in October 2026. The sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 44.0% from 34.5% in September, and months of inventory eased to 4.4 from 4.8. Conditions were still softer than October 2025, when the ratio was 48.7% and inventory was 3.7 months. Condo apartments remained firmly in buyer’s-market territory at 7.4 months of inventory.
Ottawa homes sold in a median of 25.5 days in October 2026, compared with 27 days in September and 25 days in October 2025. Homes sold for an average of 97.5% of their listing price, unchanged from September and down from 97.9% a year earlier.
Townhouses were the tightest segment of the Ottawa market in October 2026, with 3.6 months of inventory, followed by single-family homes at 4.0 months. Apartments had 7.4 months of inventory. Townhouse sales were down only 3.0% from October 2025, although the townhouse benchmark price of $539,800 was 4.3% lower than a year earlier.
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on October 28, 2026, its first increase in three years. For Ottawa buyers, higher prime-linked rates raise the cost of variable-rate mortgages, HELOCs and bridge loans, and higher rates reduce the maximum purchase price a buyer can qualify for under the mortgage stress test. Ottawa buyers should have pre-approvals re-run at current rates before making offers.
Ottawa’s average sale price fell 4.5% year over year in October 2026, while the MLS® HPI benchmark fell only 1.3%, because the mix of homes sold shifted. Detached sales dropped 12.5% while townhouse sales fell only 3.0%, so lower-priced townhouses made up a larger share of sales, pulling the average down. The benchmark tracks a typical home with consistent features, so it is the better measure of like-for-like value change in Ottawa.
