Last updated: November 2026. Forecasts are from the sources named below, as published by their release dates. Ottawa market figures are from the Ottawa Real Estate Board’s September 2026 report.
The Ottawa housing market forecast for 2027 is for a flat to modestly positive year. Every major forecast published in 2026 expects sales to recover slightly and prices to change by low single digits. The Canadian Real Estate Association expects national prices to rise 1.2% in 2027, with Ontario’s gains below 2%. Desjardins expects Ontario prices to rise 2.4%.
For Ottawa specifically, the base case is roughly flat prices for detached homes and townhouses and continued weakness in condos. The biggest swing factor is interest rates. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, 2026, and markets expect more increases.
No forecaster can tell you what a specific home will be worth next year, and this page doesn’t pretend to. What it does is lay out what the credible forecasts say, where Ottawa stands going into 2027, and which signals will decide whether the year comes in better or worse than expected.
Ottawa Housing Market Forecasts at a Glance
| Forecaster (release date) | Area | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CREA (Oct 16, 2026) | Canada | Average price $681,681 (+0.2%); sales -5.2% | Average price $689,909 (+1.2%); sales +4.4% |
| CREA (Oct 16, 2026) | Ontario | Average price about -3% | Price gains below 2% |
| Desjardins (Oct 21, 2026) | Ontario | n/a | Average price +2.4%; resales +4.7% |
| CMHC (data to Jan 15, 2026) | Canada | Average price $698,000 | Average price $705,000 |
| CMHC (data to Jan 15, 2026) | Ottawa | Sales expected to hold steady; starts expected to decline | n/a |
Two things stand out. First, the forecasts published after the summer are more cautious than those published earlier in the year. CREA’s October revision cut its 2026 sales outlook, citing higher fixed mortgage rates and a more hawkish Bank of Canada. Second, Ottawa is running below even these modest calls. Ottawa’s composite benchmark was down 0.3% year over year in September, and CREA’s quarterly figures for the Ottawa board show median detached and townhouse prices down 2.5% and 4.4% year over year in the third quarter.
Where the Ottawa Market Stands Going Into 2027
Any forecast starts from today’s numbers. Here’s where Ottawa sat at the end of September 2026, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board:
- Prices: The MLS® HPI composite benchmark was $623,500, down 0.3% year over year and up 4.0% over five years. The average sale price was $685,640, down 1.0%.
- Sales: 1,010 sales in September, down 6.6% year over year. Year-to-date sales were down 6.9%.
- Supply: 4,813 active listings, up 7.9% year over year, and 4.8 months of inventory.
- Speed: The median home took 27 days to sell, up from 22 a year earlier. Homes sold for 97.5% of list price on average.
- By type: Detached prices were flat (-0.1%), townhouses were down 2.2% and condo apartments were down 6.1%.
In short, Ottawa enters 2027 as a balanced market leaning toward buyers, with flat freehold prices and a soft condo segment. That’s a stable starting point. Prices haven’t run up in a way that leaves them exposed to a sharp correction. For more detail by home type, see Ottawa home prices. For the forces behind these numbers, see Ottawa real estate market trends.
The Six Factors That Will Decide Ottawa’s 2027 Market
1. Interest rates
Rates are the single biggest variable. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28, 2026. It said further increases may be needed but that it would “proceed carefully.” Inflation has run near 3%, driven largely by energy prices. CREA noted in October that markets were pricing in about 100 basis points of increases within a year. It also noted that consensus economists expect less tightening than that.
If rates rise as far as markets expect, 2027 sales and prices will likely come in below the forecasts above. If the Bank holds or moves less than markets fear, the modest rebound most forecasters describe becomes more likely. The next decision is on December 9, 2026.
2. Federal public service reductions
Budget 2025 set a target of reducing the federal public service by about 28,000 positions by 2029. The Conference Board of Canada estimates Ottawa-Gatineau could end up with roughly 16,000 fewer federal jobs by 2029 than if public administration employment had stayed flat. The Board projects unemployment about 1.3 percentage points higher than its baseline, but only a marginal effect on housing starts.
Ottawa has been here before. Between 1994 and 1999, the federal government reduced its workforce by more than 42,000 positions. According to OREB’s historical data, Ottawa’s average sale price slipped 2.9% in 1995 and 1.9% in 1996 before recovering in 1997. That history suggests job cuts tend to slow the market rather than break it. It also shows the effect can last more than one year. See Ottawa house prices history for the full record.
3. Inventory
Supply has been building. Active listings were up 7.9% year over year in September, and new listings jumped 38.1% from August, about three times the usual seasonal increase. If sellers keep coming to market faster than buyers in spring 2027, prices will stay flat or soften. If the listing surge fades as rates rise and owners hold on, the market could tighten again.
4. Population growth
Population growth drives housing demand over time. CREA’s 2027 rebound assumes “a return to higher population growth” alongside slow but positive economic growth. That assumption is worth watching. If population growth stays low, demand for entry-level homes and rentals will be weaker than forecasters expect.
5. New construction
New-home sales are recovering faster than resale. The Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association reported 521 new homes sold in September 2026, up 81% from a year earlier. Builder incentives compete directly with resale homes in suburbs like Kanata, Stittsville, Barrhaven and Riverside South. At the same time, CMHC expects housing starts to decline in 2026, with Ottawa among the markets most affected. Fewer starts today tighten supply in 2028 and beyond.
6. The rental market and condo supply
Ottawa added 4,646 purpose-built rental units in 2025, with another 4,187 expected in 2026, according to Urbanation. More rental supply means more choice for renters and more competition for condo investors. Until that supply is absorbed, condo prices are likely to lag the rest of the market. See the Ottawa condo market for more.
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Ottawa Forecast by Home Type
Forecasters publish overall numbers, but each home type is likely to move differently in 2027.
Detached homes. The most resilient segment. Detached prices were flat over the past year and up 5.0% over five years, and detached homes sold faster than any other type in September (median 23 days). Move-up demand in the suburbs underpins this segment. Expect it to track the overall forecast: roughly flat, with modest gains if rates cooperate.
Townhouses. The tightest segment, with 4.0 months of inventory and the highest sale-to-list ratio (98.1%). Townhouses are the main entry point for buyers who want a freehold without condo fees. They’re sensitive to rates and to first-time buyer confidence, so job news and rate decisions will move this segment most.
Condo apartments. The weakest segment, with the benchmark down 6.1% in a year and 7.3 months of inventory. Rental supply and investor demand will decide when it stabilizes. None of the major forecasts point to a quick condo recovery in 2027.
This split matters most for move-up buyers. If condo values keep slipping while detached prices hold, the gap between them keeps widening. See what’s my home worth to get a current number on your own home before you plan around a forecast.
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Will Ottawa House Prices Drop in 2027?
A broad price drop isn’t the base case in any major forecast published in 2026. CREA, CMHC and Desjardins all expect prices to hold roughly steady or rise slightly in 2027. In Ottawa, the condo segment is the exception: its prices are already falling, and that may continue.
What would change that? A downside year would most likely require several things at once: the Bank of Canada raising rates as aggressively as markets fear, federal job losses arriving faster than expected, and listings continuing to outpace sales into spring. Each of those is possible. All three together would likely push freehold prices lower in 2027, not just flat.
An upside year would look like the reverse. Rates stabilize, the spring market absorbs the extra inventory, and population growth recovers. In that case, Ottawa’s freehold prices could rise modestly, closer to the Desjardins end of the range.
Here’s how the scenarios compare:
| Scenario | What would need to happen | Likely result for Ottawa |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | Rates rise modestly; job cuts phase in gradually; spring inventory stays high | Freehold prices roughly flat; condos soft; sales recover slightly |
| Downside | Aggressive rate hikes; faster federal job losses; listings keep outpacing sales | Freehold prices decline; condos weaken further; longer days on market |
| Upside | Rates hold or ease; strong spring demand; population growth returns | Modest freehold price gains; condo declines slow; faster sales |
Is Ottawa in a Housing Bubble?
The data doesn’t fit a bubble. Bubbles are marked by prices rising far faster than incomes and inflation, heavy speculation and very tight supply. Ottawa shows the opposite. The composite benchmark is up just 4.0% over five years, well below the roughly 19% rise in consumer prices over the same period, as measured by Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index. In real terms, the typical Ottawa home is worth less than it was in 2021. Inventory is rising, not falling, and homes are taking longer to sell.
That doesn’t guarantee prices can’t fall. It means that if Ottawa prices do decline, the cause would more likely be rates and employment than a correction from speculative excess.
What the 2027 Forecast Means for Buyers
A flat market with rising inventory is a good market to buy in. You have more choice, more time and more negotiating room than buyers have had in years. The risk is less about overpaying in a frenzy and more about rates: a home you can afford today may be harder to finance if rates rise further.
Practical steps:
- Get pre-approved with a rate hold before you shop seriously, and understand the mortgage stress test.
- Don’t try to time the bottom. If you find the right home at a fair price and plan to stay five years or more, a forecast swing of a percent or two matters less than the right location and the right house.
- Compare new and resale. With builders offering incentives, a new build can sometimes beat a comparable resale on total cost. See new construction homes in Ottawa.
- Know the full cost. Use the Ottawa home affordability calculator and see how interest rates affect buying power.
For timing questions, see when is the best time to buy a home in Ottawa.
What the 2027 Forecast Means for Sellers
If you’re planning to sell in 2027, expect competition. Inventory is higher than it has been in years, and spring usually brings the most new listings. Sellers who price to recent comparables from day one, prepare the home properly and market it well will do fine. Sellers who list at last year’s prices and wait for the market to catch up are the ones most likely to be disappointed.
Waiting for a better market is a gamble. None of the major forecasts call for a meaningful price rebound in 2027. If your plans call for a move, the market you can see today is a more reliable guide than a hoped-for recovery. See when is the best time to sell your home in Ottawa and selling a home in a buyer’s market.
If you’re buying and selling at the same time
For move-up homeowners, a flat market is workable. Your sale price and your purchase price tend to move together, so the gap you need to bridge stays predictable. The real risk is timing, especially buying first when your own home may take a month or more to sell. In this market, selling first or buying with a sale condition is usually the lower-risk path. My selling and buying a home at the same time guide walks through each option.
Plan Your 2027 Move With Jason Polonski
I’m Jason Polonski, a full-time REALTOR® with Right at Home Realty and more than 15 years in Ottawa real estate. I track Ottawa market statistics weekly, not just when OREB publishes its monthly release, and I publish a plain-language read on the market every month in my Ottawa housing market update.
Forecasts are a starting point. Planning a move takes more than that. My Bachelor of Commerce in Marketing and Finance from Concordia University shapes how I read the data, and my background in construction and the electrical trades shapes how I read the house. I’ve helped hundreds of buyers and sellers across Ottawa, with a focus on Kanata, Stittsville, Barrhaven and the west end. My job is to help you avoid a timing mistake first, then get the price right.
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Sellers can list with me at a 1% Listing Commission, charged on the final sold price (details). Buyers can receive up to $3,000 cash back at closing.
Talk Through Your 2027 Plans With Jason
Thinking about buying or selling in the next 12 months? Get a straight read on what the forecast means for your home and your next one. Call or text (613) 601-9333, or contact Jason.
Ottawa Housing Market Forecast: Frequently Asked Questions
Most forecasts point to a flat to modestly positive 2027. CREA expects national prices to rise 1.2% with Ontario gains below 2%, and Desjardins expects Ontario prices to rise 2.4%. For Ottawa, the base case is roughly flat freehold prices and continued softness in condos.
A broad decline isn’t the base case in any major 2026 forecast. Condo prices are the exception, with the Ottawa condo benchmark already down 6.1% in the year to September 2026. Aggressive rate hikes or faster federal job losses could push freehold prices lower.
Modest gains are possible if interest rates stabilize and spring demand absorbs the extra inventory. Forecasts published in 2026 put likely price changes in the low single digits, not a return to rapid growth.
They’re likely to slow demand, especially among first-time and condo buyers, rather than cause a sharp decline. The Conference Board of Canada expects only a marginal effect on housing starts. During the 1990s federal cuts, Ottawa’s average price dipped in 1995 and 1996 before recovering.
The data doesn’t suggest one. Ottawa’s composite benchmark is up only 4.0% over five years, well below inflation, inventory is rising and homes are taking longer to sell. Those are the opposite of bubble conditions.
Waiting may not help. None of the major forecasts call for a meaningful price drop, and rising interest rates could reduce what you can borrow. If you find the right home at a fair price and plan to stay, today’s balanced market offers more choice and negotiating room than recent years.
It can be, if the home is priced to the market from day one. Expect more competing listings than in recent springs. Waiting for a price rebound is a gamble, since forecasts call for flat to modest gains.
